German Cannabis Market Establishes Foundation for Global Industry Expansion (Op-Ed)

There is arguably no cannabis market in the world that is experiencing a more compelling growth trajectory than the market in Germany, the largest economy in Europe. The rapid expansion of Germany’s cannabis market, which began in earnest with the adoption of the German Cannabis Act (CanG) in April 2024, shows no signs of slowing today.

As its market grows, Germany appears poised to fundamentally rewrite the cannabis landscape across the European Union, helping induce many of its neighbors to adopt much more permissive cannabis regimes. In addition, the increased demand for legal cannabis in Germany is helping establish an increasingly robust international supply chain for cannabis, with nations around the world targeting Germany as a key export market for their domestically cultivated cannabis.

In many respects, the rapid emergence of the German cannabis market has, for the first time, made cannabis a truly global industry, a development which in the coming years will have massive implications not only for international commerce, but also for health care systems and practices the world over.

Robust Patient Growth

On April 1, 2024, following years of contentious debate over whether and how cannabis should be legally regulated, Germany implemented the German Cannabis Act (CanG). Though the law envisioned that Germany might eventually adopt an adult-use cannabis regime bearing similarity to the adult-use programs that exist in Canada and across much of the United States, in its initial April 2024 implementation, CanG had primarily a medical focus.

In particular, one of the central provisions of CanG was that it reclassified cannabis from a “narcotic” to a recognized “medicine” in Germany, making it substantially easier for German medical professionals to prescribe medical cannabis to patients in need. Prior to this, the medical cannabis prescription process was deeply bureaucratic and restrictive in Germany, stifling the growth of the legal cannabis market.

As a result, in the 13 months since CanG was implemented, Germany has experienced an unprecedented growth in its number of medical cannabis patients. In April 2024, Germany was estimated to have roughly 250,000 medical cannabis patients, a fairly modest number for a country of 85 million people. However, according to Artemis Growth Partners, as of May 2025, Germany is estimated to have nearly 900,000 medical cannabis patients, almost four times the number of patients that existed in the country a little more than a year before.

Prior to Germany’s recent emergence as a medical cannabis powerhouse, the largest medical cannabis market in the world was considered to be Florida, in the United States. As of May 2025, Florida had approximately 915,000 registered medical cannabis patients. However, given the continued growth in its patient population, Germany appears poised to potentially overtake Florida as the largest medical cannabis market in the world by June 2025, as measured by the number of cannabis patients.

Moreover, by the end of 2025, Germany may have close to 1.5 million medical cannabis patients—a staggering number that would represent close to 2% of the population, with room to grow. Florida’s medical cannabis patients represent roughly 4% of their state’s population. 

This growth in Germany’s patient population has been reflected in the growth of the overall cannabis market. According to Prohibition Partners, whereas in 2024 sales in Germany’s medical cannabis market were estimated at approximately €450 million (~$500 million), in 2025, Germany is likely to exceed €1 billion (~$1.1 billion) in medical cannabis sales.

Mitigating the Illicit Market

Though cannabis has been legal in many states across the United States for years, the growth in the United States cannabis industry has been inhibited by a persistent illicit cannabis market. The tax and regulatory environment that legal cannabis businesses in the United States face has generally made it much cheaper for cannabis consumers to purchase cannabis illegally, preventing the legal cannabis market in the United States from reaching its potential.

By contrast, it is generally much cheaper to purchase cannabis legally in Germany than it is to purchase cannabis on the illicit market. According to the Bloomwell Group, the price of legal cannabis flower in Germany is currently estimated to be between €4-7 (~$4.50-$7.80) per gram, while the price of illicitly purchased cannabis is estimated at €10 (~$11) per gram.

Legal cannabis in Germany is cheaper than illicit cannabis for a number of reasons. First, learning from the mistakes of the United States, Germany has chosen not to impose a highly punitive tax structure on legal cannabis. Second, the distribution of cannabis medicine through Germany’s existing medical pharmacies has meant that the cannabis industry has not had to stand up a bespoke and expensive infrastructure for cannabis distribution, in contrast to the dispensary system established in the United States, in which cannabis is the only product sold. Third, the European tradition whereby medicine and health care are subsidized by the government has meant that legal cannabis in Germany is much less expensive to consumers.

In this respect, the fact that legal cannabis in Germany is more affordable than the illegal market is revolutionary for the global cannabis industry to date. It helps explain the remarkable rate at which Germans are registering to become medical cannabis patients. That said, as of May 2025, there are still a limited number of form factors offered in Germany’s medical cannabis market, with only flower and some forms of extracts offered, while products like edibles are banned. To ensure that Germany’s legal cannabis market retains an upper hand in the coming years, the legal market will need to broaden its product offerings to match the variety of products being sold through illicit channels.

International Supply Chain

According to Business of Cannabis, as of May 2025, approximately 50% of medical cannabis being sold in Germany is being imported from Canada. In 2023, Canada exported approximately 17 metric tons of medical cannabis to Germany. In 2024, Canadian exports to Germany nearly doubled to 33 metric tons. In 2025, Canada will likely export more than 50 metric tons of medical cannabis to Germany.

Domestic cannabis cultivation in Germany has been limited thus far, in part because of high energy costs and labor costs in the country, relative to other nations. Whether this evolves in the coming years will be interesting to observe. Regardless, the increased demand for legal cannabis in Germany is helping establish a robust international supply chain for cannabis. The growth in international cannabis commerce and the establishment of cannabis as a global commodity are having a deeply legitimizing effect, helping overcome domestic stigmas against cannabis that have previously obstructed the growth of the cannabis industry around the world.

New Coalition Government

Following Germany’s February 2025 federal elections, a new coalition government has been established, comprised of three parties: the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU), the center-right Christian Social Union (CSU) and the center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD). This coalition, often referred to as a “Black-Red” alliance, holds a slim majority in the German Bundestag, with 328 out of 630 seats.

Though some members of Germany’s new coalition government have expressed a desire to repeal the CanG law implemented in April 2024, it appears highly unlikely they will have the political support necessary to scrap the law entirely. Instead, it is anticipated that the new government will make fairly modest changes to Germany’s cannabis laws, perhaps by reducing the possession limits for cannabis and making changes to the telemedicine prescription process.

Future Outlook and Opportunity

It thus seems likely that German cannabis laws will retain relative stability in the coming years, with the patient population continuing to steadily increase, and the overall market growing in tandem with it. By many estimates, Germany has the potential to be a €4 billion (~$4.5 billion) cannabis market by the end of the decade, if not higher, creating economic opportunities not only in Germany but also for businesses across the world.

Notably, several large multistate operators (MSOs) in the United States are taking a close look at the German market. Curaleaf, considered the largest MSO in the United States, has thus far taken the biggest step with its acquisition of a majority stake in domestic operator Four 20 Pharma, estimated to have 10% market share in Germany.

Similarly, Cresco Labs, one of the largest MSOs in the United States, recently gave the keynote address at the April 2025 International Cannabis Business Conference (ICBC) in Berlin, with CEO Charlie Bachtell signaling Cresco’s intention to explore opportunities in the German market and making the case that it was important for operators based in the United States to “look downfield” at opportunities in Germany.

At the same event in Berlin, the CEO of leading Canadian retail cannabis operator High Tide, Raj Grover, as well as the CEO of Canada’s leading house of premium brands Rubicon Organics, Margaret Brodie, both indicated that their companies are actively evaluating opportunities in the German market.

In addition, prominent Canadian licensed producers Tilray and Aurora hold domestic cultivation licenses for cannabis in Germany, two of only three companies licensed to cultivate in the country. Moreover, Canadian licensed producer Organigram has established a robust supply agreement with leading German operator Sanity Group and has also made a substantial investment in its German partner to provide it with growth capital.  

There is thus arguably no cannabis market in the world that is doing more to establish cannabis as a global industry than Germany. In particular, there appears to be a significant opportunity for cannabis operators in the United States and Canada to capitalize on the growing German market, which should have massive implications in the years to come, not only for global cannabis commerce but also for health care systems and practices across the world.